Grappling with presidential vacuum, compounded by national disorientation that is further aggravated by mutual distrust, incrimination and loss of common sense as well as a national sense of urgency, Lebanon is sliding fast into an abyss of unfathomable depth taking with it all good tidings for a considerable stint of time in future. In 80s revolution Hezbollah emerged as a saving grace for Lebanon and kicked Israel out of Lebanon albeit with the help of Syria.

Although, since then Syrian influence on Lebanon had increased proportionate to the depleting influence of Western powers yet Lebanese lived with it, as they had become tired of the US, French and European and Israeli meddling with their domestic affairs. Syrian presence in Lebanon was obvious though, they were discreet enough not to repeat the mistakes of their predecessors in Lebanon. Syria helped Lebanon recover its sovereignty in 80s and until they ended their active presence in Lebanon, they ostensibly worked towards this end.

With the rise of the US influence in the Middle East, leading to all time US military presence in and around the region, the mechanics of regional politics changed.

The Western powers found yet another opportunity to recover Lebanon and bring it back to its folds to counter Syrian and Iranian stress on Israeli borders. In the aftermath of Rafik Hariri’s killing Syria was successfully demonised and forced out of the country militarily; Lebanon was attacked to eliminate Hezbollah.

Pro-Israel West failed on both counts. Syria had withdrawn its forces diligently to remove an irritant so that the veracity of charges levelled against it regarding the murder of Rafik Hariri as well as Lebanon’s instability could be proved wrong. The West could not scratch Syria from the hearts and minds of millions of Lebanese, who still thankfully remembered Syrian 
sacrifices, in men and material, for bringing peace and stability to their country.

Israeli defeat in terms of realising its military objectives in 37 day war not only exposed the moral bankruptcy of its killing machine, mostly furbished, fed and sustained by the US money, it diluted its halo of invincibility that was created in the haze of 1967 and 1973 Arab Israeli wars. The war saw a 
new military stratagem at play: Israel’s total disregard to maintain any distinction between military and civilian targets as long as the enemy target could be eliminated, abolished or neutralised, successfully.

West’s leaders too failed the West. Whereas anti war demonstrations, ever increasing in terms of participation and frequency, all across the Western landscape demanded imme-diate stoppage of war, its leaders completely failed to see the Devil at work in Israel.

The magnitude of death and destruction, the loss of civilian property and life of non-combatant population was unimaginatively huge. The Security Council at the United Nations completely failed to act promptly because of 
Israel’s Godfather, the US and thus Devil’s game of bloodletting went on for 37 days.

Whereas, Lebanon’s army stayed out of the battle Hezbollah’s fighters faced the full brunt of Israeli war machine. Now, the same general of Lebanon army is being tipped as the next president of the country. The government under Fuad Siniora is in rush. It wants a quick fix to eliminate and marginalise the opposition to government in Lebanon that has been demanding a change of the government it consider the most corrupt, pro-Israel/West and inept in taking care of Lebanon’s national interests. The ten deferments in the election of Lebanon’s president speak volumes about the 
difficulties in reaching any understanding between the government and the opposition.

The political conflict over the presidency is escalating and turning itself into a full fledge war and might lead the country into a chaos of unfathomable proportions. It is feared that if political issues are not resolved through political means two rival governments might be formed, as was the case at the end of the 1975-1990 civil war.

Under the influence of Jewish-Western nexus the government of Fuad Siniora has been rejecting all demands of the opposition that is being pushed to the corner with a very few options to resort to. The desperation on political front can be gauged by the fact that a seasoned politician, Michel Aoun, a former Maronite Lebanese army chief, who led a campaign from his Paris home against Damascus before he returned to Lebanon in 2005 after Syria had withdrew from the country, has allied his Free Patriotic Movement with Hezbollah and other opposition parties and is demanding the removal of Fuad Siniora’s government. Challenging the integrity of opposition parties in Lebanon Pro West-Israel government of Fuad Siniora simply brushes the opposition parties aside branding them as Pro-Syria groups.

Disagreement over the election of his successor was on the horizon before Mr. Lahoud had left the office last Nov. It was expected that the crisis might push the country into a chaos. In his parting statement on 23rd November he said, ‘he was handing over responsibility for the country’s security to the 
army on the grounds that conditions existed “which could lead to a state of emergency.”

Fuad Siniora rejected the assessment of the outgoing president, took charge of the country on 24th November, and told reporters “we will exert all efforts to carry out as soon as possible the election in line with the constitution. … We, as a government, will continue to carry out our duties as provided by the constitution.” The constitution that needs to be amended to break the impasse and that is the thing, which is not possible without the full participation and agreement of the opposition, that is already on Lebanese streets demanding the dissolution of Siniora’s government before any political agreement could be reached.

In desperation to push the election of the president through, bulldozing the opposition, Siniora’s government failed to elect the president for the tenth time on 22nd Dec. The murky political scene is made duller each passing day. Terrorists are gaining grounds and in turn might make Lebanon unliveable for peaceful souls. Last week a top Lebanese army officer, 
Brigadier General Francois El-Hajj, head of army operations, and his bodyguard were killed in a powerful car bomb that has further destabilised the country as it grapples with a presidential vacuum. According to themilitary assessment, El-Hajj was targeted because he was tipped to become the new army commander-in-chief, replacing General Michel Sleiman, frontrunner to become Lebanon’s next president.

Opposition is at the receiving end of all the blames as well as challenge to its integrity. That too from a government that remained silent when Israel had attacked the country and was pounding Hezbollah positions in Southern Lebanon. All parties in Lebanon are in a no win position and must rally 
together to pull the country back from a steep slide into death and destruction. Country’s power sharing system needs to be overhauled. Why should not there be a constitution that should respect all religions at par with each other and a democracy that is the product of a popular vote.

The division of high offices of the country as spoils of war was the product of a crisis averted and should not be allowed to govern the sensibilities of a civil society. Lebanon can be a model for Christians of all denominations, Shias and Sunnis to live together in peace and harmony: only if Lebanese 
are able to defeat select political interests.

Information

With the rise of the US influence in the Middle East, leading to all time US military presence in and around the region, the mechanics of regional politics changed. 

First appeared in Pakistan Observer, Islamabad in Dec, 2010